Brent erased every wartime gain. Hormuz is open and tankers are moving. But the MoU runs 60 days, the harder talks haven't started, and US stocks just hit their lowest since 1984. The market says crisis over. It hasn't read the fine print
The April 8 ceasefire was supposed to be extended. It is gone instead. In four days: a US helicopter down, strikes deep inside Iran, Gulf bases hit, and the Strait formally re-declared closed. Brent rose $3 and gave it all back. The price reaction tells you something. So does the data beneath it.
Three months into the largest supply shock in modern history, oil is trading below $100. Four workarounds are keeping the price in check. Each one is finite. Each one is being depleted simultaneously. The question is not why oil isn't at $200 — it's what happens when the workarounds run out.
Russia is selling roughly the same crude as before the war. But at prices the G7 price cap was designed to prevent. Its daily oil revenues are up an estimated 75–85%. And that number gets larger when China returns.
US crude exports hit record levels. Asian refiners are buying American at crisis prices. The country that imposed the sanctions is also the country cashing the cheque — and the hidden costs are quietly showing up at the pump.
China has quietly withdrawn 3.2 million barrels a day from global seaborne markets — and in doing so revealed that the oil demand figures the world relied on for three years may have been telling a story that was never quite true.
Eight weeks into the largest oil supply disruption in modern history — and markets are watching the wrong country. The crisis is unfolding in India and Europe. And the UAE has just left OPEC.
The Crude Oil Desk Oil Markets Intelligence Issue No. 001 April 2026 —————— Oil · Flows · Geopolitics Weekly briefing for energy professionals This week A false sense of security Six weeks ago, oil markets were pricing a 3 million barrel per day surplus for the first quarter of 2026. Traders were bearish.