Three months into the largest supply shock in modern history, oil is trading below $100. Four workarounds are keeping the price in check. Each one is finite. Each one is being depleted simultaneously. The question is not why oil isn't at $200 — it's what happens when the workarounds run out.
Russia is selling roughly the same crude as before the war. But at prices the G7 price cap was designed to prevent. Its daily oil revenues are up an estimated 75–85%. And that number gets larger when China returns.
US crude exports hit record levels. Asian refiners are buying American at crisis prices. The country that imposed the sanctions is also the country cashing the cheque — and the hidden costs are quietly showing up at the pump.
China has quietly withdrawn 3.2 million barrels a day from global seaborne markets — and in doing so revealed that the oil demand figures the world relied on for three years may have been telling a story that was never quite true.
