We are economists with PhDs and MScs who work at the intersection of oil markets, data, and geopolitics. We are independent. We have no affiliation, no house view tied to a trading position, and no commercial interest in the conclusions we reach.
crude oil
Three months into the largest supply shock in modern history, oil is trading below $100. Four workarounds are keeping the price in check. Each one is finite. Each one is being depleted simultaneously. The question is not why oil isn't at $200 — it's what happens when the workarounds run out.
Russia
Russia is selling roughly the same crude as before the war. But at prices the G7 price cap was designed to prevent. Its daily oil revenues are up an estimated 75–85%. And that number gets larger when China returns.
market insights
US crude exports hit record levels. Asian refiners are buying American at crisis prices. The country that imposed the sanctions is also the country cashing the cheque — and the hidden costs are quietly showing up at the pump.
Energy
China has quietly withdrawn 3.2 million barrels a day from global seaborne markets — and in doing so revealed that the oil demand figures the world relied on for three years may have been telling a story that was never quite true.
Oil Markets
Eight weeks into the largest oil supply disruption in modern history — and markets are watching the wrong country. The crisis is unfolding in India and Europe. And the UAE has just left OPEC.
News
The Crude Oil Desk Oil Markets Intelligence Issue No. 001 April 2026 —————— Oil · Flows · Geopolitics Weekly briefing for energy professionals This week A false sense of security Six weeks ago, oil markets were pricing a 3 million barrel per day surplus for the first quarter of 2026. Traders were bearish.