hormuz
The April 8 ceasefire was supposed to be extended. It is gone instead. In four days: a US helicopter down, strikes deep inside Iran, Gulf bases hit, and the Strait formally re-declared closed. Brent rose $3 and gave it all back. The price reaction tells you something. So does the data beneath it.
crude oil
Three months into the largest supply shock in modern history, oil is trading below $100. Four workarounds are keeping the price in check. Each one is finite. Each one is being depleted simultaneously. The question is not why oil isn't at $200 — it's what happens when the workarounds run out.
Oil Markets
Eight weeks into the largest oil supply disruption in modern history — and markets are watching the wrong country. The crisis is unfolding in India and Europe. And the UAE has just left OPEC.